Monday, November 5, 2012

2012 U.S. Presidential Election Prediction

The polls open in twenty-four hours, and it's time for a little prognostication. As many pundits see it, there are nine states - Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida - and 125 electoral votes in play to decide the election. My prediction is Republican-nominee Mitt Romney wins Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Florida, while President Barack Obama wins Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. As they say, the election is more Obama's to lose than it is Romney's to win.

In Wisconsin, Republicans withstood a bitterly contested recall election, and the vice-presidential nominee, Paul Ryan, is poised to deliver the state for his party. In Michigan, where Romney's late father, George Romney, was a respected auto industry executive and former governor, millions of auto workers, though unionized, look to re-ignite an American auto industry still in decline. Although traditionally Democratic strongholds, Pennsylvania's coal industry has seen reductions in production thanks to the current administration's energy policies, while a Romney-governed Massachusetts implemented a healthcare system - however one cares to consider it good or bad - without burdening taxpayers or the state. As governor, he also was able to pass a budget that curtailed the state's deficit, and voters could favor him as president given that record.

In my opinion, this is how the electoral map will shape up:

(Source:  270ToWin) 

©Steve Sagarra 2012

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